Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche

According to the International Monetary Fund [9], the COVID-19 pandemic is currently affecting both financial sustainability and the social adequacy of public pension systems. In this paper, we measure the effects of the pandemic on the Italian public pension system by modeling the evolution of some key variables, such as unemployment rate, wage growth rate, inflation rate, and mortality rates, which are involved in the evaluation of the pension system from both the side of contributions and benefits amount, considering or not the shock due to the pandemic. Our analysis shows that the Italian system seems to be resilient in the long run to financial stress, however, showing a critical evolution of social adequacy.