Prof. Enrico Biffis (Imperial College, Londra)
Security posture assessment in conflict areas: Evidence from Iraq
Abstract
We consider the problem of assessing the security posture of organizations operating in conflict areas. We show how spatio-temporal risk models can be used to understand the dynamics of attack occurrences and severities, providing insights into the design of the Close Protection security layer, the range of security measures under direct control of an organization. We use a granular dataset on attacks carried out in Iraq during the period 2007-15 to quantify the economic gains from using granular information on attack occurrences by comparing the economic cost of implementing security postures based on conditional vs. unconditional information. Metrics based on expected casualties are also discussed. As an application, we consider in detail four different areas presenting different socio-economic characteristics and patterns of attack occurrence. We then look at the oil and gas industry, and discuss a case study based on a medium sized oil field in the Basra province. We find that appropriate use of spatio-temporal information can deliver average security cost savings of around 30\% relative to the case of unconditional security postures, and of around 50\% relative to the case of security postures driven by overreaction to spikes in conflict activity that have limited bearing for the exposures at stake. Areas featuring significant spatio-temporal clustering of events may require instead up to 50% more investment in mobile security. This is joint work with D. Benedetti and M. Shoukru.