Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche

Seismic risk is a major threat to Italy’s territory, financial stability, and most importantly to the safety of its inhabitants. Over the last decades a significant number of earthquakes has occurred, resulting in considerable losses of human life and economic resources. In recent years, the topic is increasingly at the center of common debate, making light on the need to counter this risk preventally rather than correctivelly after the incalculable damage has occurred. Among the most feasible solutions there are public-private partnerships between the State and insurance companies. However, to quantify the insurability of the risk, its actuarial technical basis must be studied, starting from the probability of an earthquake with a certain intensity occurring in a certain number of years. To do this, a new type of spatial regression is implemented on the Peninsula in order to asses the hazard.